By New Scientist
June 5, 2017
A survey of artificial intelligence researchers has found many believe there is a 50% chance machines will outperform humans in all tasks within 45 years.
There is a 50% chance that machines will outperform humans in all tasks within 45 years, according to a survey of 352 artificial intelligence researchers conducted by Yale University and the University of Oxford in the U.K.
For example, they predict machines will dominate language translation by 2024.
The survey was sent to AI researchers who published in 2015 at either the Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems or the International Conference on Machine Learning.
“There is accumulating evidence that machines can overpower human intelligence in complex, thought-specific tasks,” says Eleni Vasilaki at the University of Sheffield in the U.K.
Although the survey found no link between the seniority of researchers and the predictions they made, it did reveal a correlation based on where the researchers were from. The survey found researchers based in Asia typically gave shorter timeframes for when AI will completely outperform humans than those in North America.
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